Apple Will be a Leader in Robotics - Here's Why
A consumer robot would allow Apple to build an ambient computing moat that could last decades.
Hello Everyone,
These days Apple is caught catching up in Generative AI and having finally given up on an EV (it was too late), robotics is now again a hot sector and my question is will Apple become a consumer home robotics leader?
Apple’s search for a bold new product category feels neverending since the iPhone was developed and if the Vision Pro is not it, potentially could Apple become known for consumer robots?
According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, Apple is looking for its "next big thing," and robotics are one area of focus. However very few details have been given and Apple is itself a fairly secretive company.
Apple could make cute robots of the Disney or Wall-E variety that have a screen, follow you around and are more like extensions of your iOS ecosystem no matter where you are. But there has been a lot of speculation and debate on what point or service such a robot would really serve?
Analysts and shareholders appear relatively skeptical that Apple can make this a real revenue source. However with all that they achieved with the AppleWatch, never say never when it comes to Apple’s understanding of what makes their consumers tick.
A robot could provide useful data points on their customers and enable more ambient computing in their real home environments, a space companies like Amazon and even Google might be after as well. Given the rise of AI in robotics, Apple might also not want to be too far behind on the adoption curve if the space heats up again.
While Apple's robotics projects are still in the very early stages, Bloomberg said it had already started working on a mobile robot that can follow users around their home and had already developed a table-top device that uses a robot to move a screen around.
Could Apple get into Senior Care Robots?
While a smart speaker is useful for music lovers, and earbuds with an upgraded Siri are obviously coming, a robot provides a level of companionship that some older customers might enjoy as they hit retirement age. It’s not what it can show on a screen that is important, but a level of even healthcare interventions and mental health checks that a home robot might accomplish for a user.
Apple has been getting more into healthcare in recent years. Apple does want to empower people with their health information. A robot could provide a modular interface with people in their natural environments, their homes. A robot can also become more intimate than a smart phone or an AI device that’s simply a small object with sensors.
Apple even made a report back in 2022 about their health enhancements to users:
It’s possible that a natural extension from wearables and spatial computing is actually the human interface between a person and their pet robot. The level of personalization that will become possible soon with Generative AI and on-device LLMs might be impressive for applications of consumer robots who can actually interact with us.
Apple could become a custodian and begin to own that human-robotics interface and channel.
Apple’s Ambient Computing
MacOS
iOS
Apple Services
Voice speakers
Wearables
Spatial computing (e.g. gaming, meetings)
Robotics
Consumer robots could play more vital roles in the future in family settings as well. Hypothetically there’s more here than many companies realize and it all has to do with the growing capabilities of what Generative AI will allow in robot-to-human interactions.
Health information
Family Wellness
Reminders and daily routines
Mental health counseling
Senior care interventions
According to the report, Apple is apparently worried about whether people would pay "top dollar" for the robots it has in mind, and executives still can't get to an agreement on whether the company should keep working on these projects. Adoption of spatial computing is hampered by a high price point for the Vision Pro.
Apple would need to put enough capabilities into its pet robots for them to be attractive enough to consumers which might take many years of R&D.
Apple’s On-Device AI Lead
Apple can lure robotics designers to their new offices in Miami. Apple is taking 45,000 square feet (4,181 square meters) in a new building in Coral Gables, a wealthy suburb just south of Miami.
Meanwhile Apple has been pouring Billions into on-device LLM technology that makes robots a no-brainer. While Sam Altman and Jony Ive race to develop an AI device for ChatGPT, in terms of consumer products Apple is highly likely to have the last laugh.
A successful consumer robot should be high on the priority list for Apple, because it marries the ambient computing element of their moat for customers with impressive healthcare opportunities.
Apple can and will acquire AI and robotics startups as needed to fast-track their efforts into robotics. I take it much more seriously than the News commentators and analysts I saw debating how crazy it sounds.
Apple's original car ambitions were to build a fully autonomous vehicle without pedals and a steering wheel, until it decided to develop an electric vehicle instead. But that dream was difficult and Apple didn’t execute very quickly. With robots, they should not make the same mistakes.
Apple Needs to Actually Innovate the Right Robot Design
They need to produce a prototype and make it better with each generation just like they have always done and did very well with the AppleWatch. I’ve been following the wearables market for at least the last decade and what they accomplished was very impressive. As of December, 2023, Apple is establishing a solid hold on wearable device unit shipments with 20.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023, dominating the market. If they could do the same with consumer home robots, it would be a very lucrative and growing market as we get later into the 2020s and into the 2030s.
Robotics for Apple needs to be a multi-decade play.
Apple is believed to be in the very early stages of developing personal robotics for people's homes. I don’t think the iPad on wheels is the right form factor however. Apple is considering a mobile robot that would follow users around the home, presumably serving as something like an iPad on wheels. A robot would likely be able to place FaceTime calls, monitor the home and the people in it, carry out simple tasks, and answer queries. This is fundamentally a redundant design.
Apple needs to innovate a bit more seriously here in the right form factor of the relationship with the consumer they want for this device. The human connection is of paramount importance. Apple could get eyes and ears on some of the most intimate aspects of our lives after all. That’s not data that’s very easy to get from a business perspective. As Apple gets more into Advertising, finding new ways to combine services in the home with advertising would be the holy grail.
Robotics for Apple could one day be nearly as important or more important than spatial computing and VR. This is because people still very much want to live in the real world and at home with more folk deciding to remain single, a robot serves a social function in changing demographics. People don’t for the most part get attached to chatbots, GPT interfaces or smart speakers, but with a robot the possibility becomes higher with greater personalization. Apple understands and anticipates this.
No Jetson Robot for the 2020s
I think the Jetson idea of what a robot does in the home, i.e. like helping with chores or cooking and other useful things, is truly something for the 2030s to figure out.
Apple is said to be exploring AI algorithms that would be used to help robots navigate cluttered spaces in homes, and while Apple wants to design a robot that would clean and do chores much like Rosey in the Jetsons, it's too complicated for now. Gurman says that such a robot is unlikely this decade due to "extraordinarily difficult engineering challenges."
Robot human-interface design
Robot navigation
Robot to human communication
Robot access to services and Siri
Robot skills, such as task execution
It’s entirely possible that eventually Apple will have to begin work on a humanoid general purpose robot. But I don’t think Apple will start this anytime soon, at least it won’t make such R&D activities public.
Robotics startups should be worried just with reports that Apple is looking into consumer home robots.
Given the opportunity and Apple’s ambient computing moat of services to users, I think robotics is too attractive an opportunity for Apple to pass up on and this means that over-time they will get quite good at this.
Furthermore Apple’s on-device Generative AI capabilities may even give it a substantial advantages in hardware and software integrations for whatever consumer robots it decides to build.